Could the coronavirus lead to a global cease
Slate is making its coronavirus coverage free for all readers. Subscribe to support our journalism. Start your free trial. Could a side effect of the coronavirus be a more peaceful world, even just temporarily? It seems like a long shot, but there’s a glimmer of hope for an unprecedented proposal for a global cease-fire. A cease-fire would allow for humanitarian aid and cooperation to fight the virus, which is now affecting at least nearly every country on Earth. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres issued a call (later backed by Pope Francis) on March 23 for an “immediate global ceasefire in all corners of the world.” The members of the Security Council are currently debating the language of a resolution endorsing the call. French President Emmanuel Macron, who has been lobbying for the resolution, says four of the five permanent members of the council have expressed support for the resolution and is hopeful that Russian President Vladimir Putin, the last holdout, can be brought around. (Efforts to reach consensus on nearly anything related to the virus within the council have so far been stymied by the U.S.-China blame game.) The resolution might seem like a pipe dream, and even if it’s passed, it’s not a sure thing that we’ll suddenly achieve world peace. A brief look at global headlines in just the past two days—Russia buzzing U.S. aircraft in the Mediterranean, North Korea firing short-range missiles, rising tensions in the Persian Gulf—make that clear. But there’s still reason to take the cease-fire idea seriously. Richard Gowan, U.N. director at the International Crisis Group, a think tank that studies armed conflict, told Slate that he and his colleagues were initially “quite cynical” about Guterres’ cease-fire proposal, but that “it did seem to resonate with a wider range of armed groups than we expected.” Rebel groups in the Philippines, Thailand, Cameroon, and Colombia have all announced unilateral cease-fires as a result of the coronavirus. In some cases, notably Sudan, the cease-fire call was endorsed by parties already involved in peace talks. In Ukraine, both the government and the Russian-backed rebels fighting in the country’s east have endorsed the call, but violence has continued. Gowan stresses that “None of the armed groups we’re talking about have somehow discovered morality and become angelic.” They’re using cease-fires opportunistically to buy time, regroup after battlefield setbacks, or buy some good publicity. But it can still be a “useful tool for U.N. envoys to nudge some conflict parties toward peace or at least humanitarian pauses,” he said. The most significant entity to announce a cease-fire so far was the Saudi-led (and U.S-backed) coalition in Yemen, which has been fighting a brutal war against the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels for more than five years. With its devastated health system, poor sanitation, and lack of central authority, Yemen—which confirmed its first coronavirus case last Friday—is one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to the disease. Saudi Arabia, which may be looking for a way to extricate itself from the costly conflict and has taken an economic hit from falling global oil prices, announced a two-week cease-fire on April 8, but the Houthis, who have made some recent battlefield gains, have not agreed to it, and fighting has continued on both sides. But Gowan hopes that the cease-fire call could give new momentum and urgency to ongoing U.N.-led peace talks. It’s not unusual for armed groups in Yemen and other similar conflicts to ramp up attacks ahead of cease-fires to increase their leverage. Another reason for skepticism about the cease-fire is that it seems almost impossible that the world’s major military powers will abide by it. There are some signs that the U.S. is using the pandemic as a pretext to draw down a bit from its “forever wars,” but it is still conducting airstrikes against Iranian backed militias in Iraq and launching raids against ISIS in Syria in cooperation with Kurdish forces. “The Coalition continues to support … anti-ISIS operations by sharing intelligence and providing eyes-in-the-sky, while we all face the challenge of preventing the spread of COVID-19,” a U.S. spokesman told Stars and Stripes about one recent raid. The U.S. will almost certainly insist on a carve-out for counterterrorist activities in any cease-fire call. This kind of carve-out has bedeviled past efforts to reach a cease-fire in Syria, given that Russia defines all opponents of the Assad regime as terrorists and justifies its airstrikes accordingly. Even France, the country most actively pushing for the cease-fire declaration, is probably not going to halt its ongoing operations targeting Islamist militants in West Africa. “Everyone is going to have their special case of someone you can kill,” notes Gowan, who adds that there’s a risk it could be seen as “Western countries telling poorer countries to pause their conflicts while Western countries continue to run the military operations they want to run.” There’s also likely to be disagreement over the question of sanctions, which many argue are a form of aggression and which countries like Iran and Venezuela are calling to be lifted in order to help combat COVID-19. Russia, under its own sanctions pressure, is likely to be amenable to that idea. The United States and its allies definitely won’t be. It’s too early to tell what effect the virus will ultimately have on armed conflict. There is some precedent for natural disasters bringing an end to armed conflict. One frequently cited example is the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, which led to a peace deal between the Indonesian government and separatist rebels in the battered province of Aceh, ending a conflict that had killed more than 12,000 people. But this was one isolated case—and the tsunami had the opposite effect elsewhere. The global nature of this disaster and the response to it seems more akin to Ronald Reagan’s famous musing in a speech to the United Nations that the only thing that could unify humanity would be “an alien threat from outside this world.” This threat came from this world, but it would be nice to think it could still serve as a good reason for humans to at least take a timeout from killing each other.Popular in News & Politics
相关推荐
-
Foreign, multicultural students rise amid declining school population
-
Dressel claims Olympic freestyle crown for first individual gold
-
打通政务服务“最后一公里”
-
Tebas asks UEFA to revoke action against Super League trio
-
Weather update for second Pak vs Ban second Test match day one
-
South Korea, US, Japan to launch missile data
- 最近发表
-
- Spaceship tech slashes energy usage of existing AC systems
- S. Korea to develop indigenous missile for light
- 市县联合开展保健食品科普宣传活动
- Cats peer out of pockets in Japanese artist's embroidered shirts
- Wordle today: The answer and hints for August 29
- Tebas asks UEFA to revoke action against Super League trio
- 光华山隧道受损风机安全拆除
- Gov't to allow corporate wage freeze for senior workers
- New Grok response directs users to Vote.gov for election questions
- Dressel claims Olympic freestyle crown for first individual gold
- 随机阅读
-
- 20 Places to Eat Dumplings and Noodles for Lunar New Year
- 评分优秀!乐昌市率先完成土壤三普外业调查采样县级验收工作
- Tebas asks UEFA to revoke action against Super League trio
- TV host's award nomination for transphobic slur apology attracts backlash
- Elon Musk's AI facility is reportedly operating gas turbines without a permit
- Parent gives brutally honest excuse for tardy kids
- Apple finally sends out payments for MacBook's butterfly keyboard settlement
- Virtual reality massage is the ultimate way to chill out
- Trump trials: Jack Smith is reportedly reconsidering his strategy.
- Gov't to allow corporate wage freeze for senior workers
- North Korea launches what it claims to be spy satellite southward: JCS
- Hafnaoui hopes surprise gold makes family proud
- 'Terminator Zero' creators find fresh life in sci
- North Korea launches what it claims to be spy satellite southward: JCS
- Europe now has a huge AI gap, for better or for worse
- #DeleteUber campaign inspired 500,000 to delete accounts in one week: NYTimes
- Best Home Depot Labor Day sale deals
- London's nightlife is disappearing — here's why that's dangerous for the city
- [Herald Interview] Swiss minister urges Korea to widen human rights role
- Parent gives brutally honest excuse for tardy kids
- 搜索
-
- 友情链接
-